UFC 137: Preview and Predictions

Today the UFC is blessing us with another STACKED card.  Even with the loss of the original main event of Georges St. Pierre and Carlos Condit, Dana White has outdone himself with the second such talent laden card in a row.  We should all be in for a treat with 11 exciting matches.  Here is my preview and predictions for tonight’s card.

In the opening bout of the evening, we have undefeated Clifford Starks, who fills in for injured Brad Tavares, facing another undefeated prospect in Dustin Jacoby.  Clifford Starks is about 50/50 on finishes to decision wins, as it looks like Jacoby is the more explosive finisher, not going past the second round in all 6 off his wins.  Jacoby is the bigger, stronger, and younger fighter and my edge goes to him.

Prediction:  Jacoby by second round TKO

The next fight we have Chris Comozzi (15-4) vs. Francis Carmont (16-7).  Carmont comes into this fight making his UFC debut and on the heels of a 5 fight win streak.  Comozzi is making his return to the octagon after a disappointing first round submission loss.  Both fighters are up and comers trying to make a statement to remain in the UFC, but only one can win.

Prediction:  Carmont by first round submission

In the third fight of the evening we have Ultimate Fighter finalist Ramsey Nijem (5-2) vs. WEC veteran Dan Downes. Nijem is coming off a disappointing first round KO loss to Tony Ferguson in the finale of the Ultimate Fighter.  Downes is also coming off a hard fought decision loss to Jeremy Stephens.  Both fighters are young and are trying to make a name for them self.  This should be an all our war.

Prediction:  Downes wins by decision

The fourth fight of the night is Brandon Vera (11-5-1 NC) vs. Eliot Marshall (11-4).  Vera is making his return to the octagon after a three round drubbing loss that was later ruled a no contest at the hands of a juiced up Thiago Silva.  Prior to the no-contest, Vera was decimated by Jon Jones and lost a close fought battle, which many thought he won against Randy Couture.  Vera a once promising heavyweight dropped down to light-heavyweight and has been anything but impressive.  Marshall is also coming off two straight loses.  Both fighters need a win in a big way to keep their jobs in the UFC.  Vera wants to get revenge against Silva and to do so he must be around for Thiago’s return early in 2012 from suspension.

Prediction:  Vera by first round TKO

In the first bout of the evening on Spike TV we get to see Tyson Griffin (15-5) vs. Bart Palaszewski (33-13). After three straight losses in the lightweight division, Griffin dropped down to featherweight and won his debut there against highly touted Manny Gamburyan.  Palaszewski has been just as inconsistent losing to a lot of big name fighters but does have a claim to fame beating Anthony Pettis in a close decision.  This will be a close fight and both fighters need a win.

Prediction: Griffin by Decision

In the second Spike fight we have a fight that I think should have been a main card attraction when Dennis Siver (19-7) faces Donald Cerrone (16-3-1NC).  Dennis Siver has been on a tear of late winning his last four contests.  Cerrone is coming off five straight wins and is poised to make a title run with a win.  Both this fighters have dynamite in their hands and feet.  But don’t sleep on either of them if it goes to the ground.  I think it is a push on their feet but if it goes to the ground I think the advantage lies with Cerrone.

Prediction: Cerrone by Decision

In the first bout on the pay-per-view portion of the card, Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2) is taking on George Roop (12-7-1).  Hioki is making his UFC debut after having a huge successful fighting career in Japan.  Roop, an Ultimate Fighter vet, has a big TKO victory over highly respected Josh Grispi.  Roop is always known for putting on exciting fights and this should be no different.  He has the huge task of taking down Hioki in his debut, who has won his last four fights and last nine of ten.

Prediction:  Hioki by third round Submission.

Fight number two on the main card is Scott Jorgensen (12-4) vs. Jeff Curran (35-13-1).  Jorgensen is a great young up and coming fighter while Curran is in the twilight of his career.  Both, however, have strung together a string of victories.  Jorgensen have won six of his last seven and Curran four of his last five.  Neither are known for their finishing abilities so I see this one being an exciting fight of the night candidate going all three rounds.

Prediction:  Jorgensen by Decision

In what I would call the co-co- main event, MMA legend Mirko Cro Cop (27-9-2-1 NC) takes on Roy Nelson (16-6).  The only thing I am looking forward to more than the fight itself is seeing this new physique Roy Nelson is carrying around.  For those of you that didn’t see the weigh-in yesterday, Nelson who has always been fairly round and proud and normally weighing in at 265 in just his underwear, came out yesterday in a sumo suit and weighing in at 252.  He left us still wondering what the new Roy Nelson looks like until the fight tomorrow.  In any case, both fighters are in need of a win.  Cro Cop who claims this could be his last match win or lose, has lost his last two fights, both by KO.  Nelson has also lost his last 2 fights by decision.  In both fights Roy Nelson showed he could take a beating and still come forward.  With the Mirko losing those lethal strikes that once hard the whole MMA world fearing him, he will have his work cut out for him against “Big Country”.

Prediction: Nelson by Decision

In the Co-Main Event of the evening we have Cheick Kongo (26-6-2) vs. Matt Mitrione (5-0).  Cheick is coming off of a huge first round comeback KO victory over a much smaller Pat Barry, after Barry mauled him for the better part of the first round.  Mitrione, who has become a huge fan favorite, has won all five matches in the UFC and all but one has not made it out of the second round.  Mitrione has evolved into a scary knockout fighter and has a bright future, especially if he takes the next step in getting by Kongo.

Predicition:  Mitrione first round KO

In the main event of the evening we have BJ Penn (16-7-2) vs. Nick Diaz (26-7-1).  Penn has made it no secret that he is on a mission to make another title run.  To do that, he will have to get through Diaz who hasn’t lost since 2006.  Nick for all intensive purpose is still the Strikeforce welter weight champion.  This is one of the most evenly matches I have seen in a long time.  Neither fighter has a clear cut advantage in the stand up game or the ground.  With both these guys being Brazilian Jujitsu blackbelts, we will probably see a stand up war.  I believe Diaz has a slight advantage here since in my opinion he is the best boxer in MMA. But BJ is ferocious on his feet as well as seen in his crazy first round finish of hall of famer Matt Hughes.  The only clear advantage here is stamina which Diaz far exceeds Penn if their previous fights are any indication.  Diaz wants to make a statement and get the fight he had and was pulled from with GSP back to be the UFC welterweight champ.

Prediction: Diaz by Decision


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