Wednesday, August 3, 2011

The Pirates Will Win the NL Central



Most of you will write me off as a complete lunatic just after reading the title and for good reason. A five game losing streak, a 3-10 record in their last 13 games, a 5.5 game deficit in the division, a division leader that just lost their first game in their last eight and, of course, an 18 year cloud hanging over the franchise's head. Yeah, I'd say they have a pretty steep hill err... mountain to climb. So why then do I believe that our beloved Buccos can still pull it off?



1. The Pirates have been here before - There are a lot of young players on this team, but they've already experienced some rough patches. In the middle of May, the Pirates dropped six in a row, and were written off as finished. They rattled off four wins right after that and were right back in the mix. Then a four game losing streak in June left fans yearning for the Steelers until the Pirates again rebounded with another four game winning streak. This is not uncharted territory.

My belief is that this team is still trying to recover physically from a brutal road trip to Atlanta and Philadelphia. If they pull out a few wins in the coming days to hang around with Milwaukee and St. Louis, they have two scheduled off days coming up and maybe the rest will serve them well.

2. The Pirates are getting healthy - Players such as Josh Harrison, Xavier Paul, Chase d'Arnaud, and Daniel Moskos, among others, have stepped up and filled holes admirably, but the lack of ability and inexperience that these players possess is catching up to the Pirates quickly. The good news? Ross Ohlendorf, Ryan Doumit, and Alex Presley, could all be back as soon as next week.

Ohlendorf could potentially fill the role of a spot starter, or maybe even just allow the team to use a six-man rotation to take off some of the workload of pitchers who have already reached career highs in innings pitched. Ohlendorf has been strong when healthy and he'll be fresh.

Doumit will add even more pop to a lineup that just added 23 homeruns with the additions of Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick. At the very least he'll let guys like Ludwick and Pedro Alvarez see a few better pitches thanks to his potential for a big bop.

Presley was the catalyst for this offense while he was manning left field, and even if his production drops off somewhat, he'll add solid defense and speed at a time when it is much needed.

If this lineup doesn't make you feel good, I don't know what does:
LF - Alex Presley
CF - Andrew McCutchen
2B - Neil Walker
1B - Derrek Lee
3B - Pedro Alvarez
RF - Garrett Jones/Ryan Ludwick
C - Ryan Doumit
SS - Ronny Cedeno

It may look a little different than that in Clint Hurdle's head, but if we've done this well with the players we've been trotting out, what makes you think that adding more talent won't put us over the hump?

Obviously the main question that remains: Will the help be too late?

3. Remaining Schedules - It doesn't help that the Brewers have the easiest road of the three teams, but even  they have more than their fair share of contenders. The Cardinals have a brutal September ahead of them. So while the Pirates have a tough schedule to play, their division rivals will be battling away as well.

The best part of these schedules? The Pirates play the Cardinals and Brewers 20 times. Some people will see this as a negative, but you couldn't ask for a better opportunity to gain some ground. I think the Pirates can and will compete with these teams and may even be playing for a division title in the final series of the season against those same Milwaukee Brewers.


Before you grab the straitjacket and lock me up in a room with padded walls, allow me to clarify. I don't know if the Pirates will win the division. I'm not even sure they'll finish .500. But in this crazy season, try to tell me they won't.


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